El-Rufai’s Defection to SDP Won’t Derail Tinubu’s Re-election in 2027 – Ex-Oyo Commissioner

Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, has officially left the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the Social Democratic Party (SDP), a move that has stirred intense political debate.

Professor Adeniyi Olowofela, the Federal Character Commissioner from Oyo State and former Commissioner for Education, has dismissed concerns that El-Rufai’s defection could hinder President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s chances of securing a second term in 2027. He described the move as “political suicide.”

Speaking during a telephone interview with Noble FM in Ibadan from Abuja on Tuesday morning, Olowofela referenced the late Bola Ige’s assertion that the President of Nigeria holds the most powerful political position in the country. He argued that this, combined with Nigeria’s political culture, would make it difficult for anyone to wrestle power from Tinubu.

“Bola Ige once said the most powerful person in Nigeria is the President. As a result, it is difficult to unseat Tinubu. His policies will yield positive results by the time the 2027 election approaches. What we are witnessing now is the natural interplay of demand and supply, which is beyond the government’s control,” Olowofela stated.

He dismissed claims of divisions within the APC, asserting that Tinubu has consolidated power within the party. “Contrary to what people are saying about APC being divided, it originated from the ACN and CPC. Tinubu has united all factions. The supposed divisions are mere political distractions,” he said.

Addressing speculation about the roles of former APC leaders such as Rauf Aregbesola and Kayode Fayemi, Olowofela maintained that they were merely Tinubu’s political foot soldiers. He also ruled out the possibility of opposition figures like Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar forming a successful alliance with El-Rufai, as they would not join a party where they cannot secure a presidential ticket.

“Tinubu’s second term is in the North’s best interest. Many assume Northerners act as a single political bloc, but this is a misconception. Atiku and Rabiu Kwankwaso, for instance, will not align with a party that doesn’t guarantee them a presidential ticket,” he explained, predicting that Tinubu will secure victory in over 18 states in 2027.

Olowofela also criticized El-Rufai’s leadership in Kaduna, labeling him a religious extremist who alienated Christians. He suggested that this may play a role in the rejection of El-Rufai’s ministerial nomination.

In a statement released on Monday, Olowofela acknowledged El-Rufai’s history of political boldness but argued that he should have exercised patience, drawing parallels with Tinubu’s long-term political strategies.

“Tinubu successfully built political alternatives to challenge the PDP’s dominance, leading to the formation of the APC and ending the PDP’s long rule. Abandoning APC now is a grave mistake for El-Rufai,” he warned.

He also dismissed the relevance of the SDP in contemporary politics, noting that the party has struggled since the era of Chief Moshood Abiola. According to him, even if a southern politician were to win in 2027, it would weaken El-Rufai’s chances of contesting in 2031.

Referencing historical political events, Olowofela compared El-Rufai’s defection to Ebenezer Babatope’s role in the Abacha regime, cautioning that it could lead to similar long-term political repercussions.

Furthermore, he urged South-West political leaders to remain loyal to the APC, warning that shifting allegiance to another party would be perceived as a betrayal akin to that of Judas Iscariot.